Oyedele Reacts as Fitch Revises Nigeria’s Outlook to Positive as Oil Output Hits OPEC Target, Inflation Seen at 15.4%

Oyedele Reacts as Fitch Revises Nigeria’s Outlook to Positive as Oil Output Hits OPEC Target, Inflation Seen at 15.4%

By Ekpang Ralph

Abuja (Core Reporters) Nigeria’s crude oil production has met its Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026, while inflation is projected to moderate to 15.4 per cent this year, according to the Federal Government.

The development comes as Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria’s credit outlook from Stable to Positive while affirming the country’s ‘B’ rating, citing sustained economic reforms, stronger external reserves and easing inflationary pressures.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, disclosed this in a statement issued on Saturday, describing the improved outlook as a reflection of growing confidence in Nigeria’s economic reform programme under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The government attributed the improved outlook partly to increased domestic refining capacity, which it said was reducing refined petroleum product imports and demand for foreign exchange.

On public finances, Fitch expects Nigeria’s tax reforms to increase non-oil revenue as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP). The agency projects general government debt to average 32 per cent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, significantly below the ‘B’ rating median of 56 per cent.

Fitch also acknowledged the depth of Nigeria’s domestic debt market and the ongoing bank recapitalisation exercise, noting that many banks had achieved capital adequacy ratios above 20 per cent, exceeding regulatory minimum requirements.

The government further noted that all three major international credit rating agencies had taken positive rating actions on Nigeria in 2026.

According to the statement, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s rating from ‘B-’ to ‘B’ in May, while Moody’s Ratings revised the country’s outlook to Positive in August. Separately, FTSE Russell restored Nigeria to Frontier Market status, effective September 21, 2026.

Oyedele said the government viewed Fitch’s latest assessment as recognition of reforms, including the removal of the fuel subsidy, exchange-rate unification and the introduction of landmark tax reforms.

He said the administration’s medium-term ambition was to put Nigeria firmly on the path to investment-grade status, adding that the reforms were intended to reduce the country’s cost of capital, attract private investment and create jobs.

However, the government acknowledged continuing economic challenges highlighted by Fitch, including inflation that remained above levels in peer countries, low government revenue relative to the size of the economy and high interest costs that consume a substantial share of public revenue.

To sustain the improvement in Nigeria’s credit profile, the government pledged to maintain a transparent, market-reflective foreign exchange regime, fully implement the new tax laws, improve spending efficiency and budget execution, and strengthen transparent debt management.

Other priorities include accelerating economic diversification, supporting non-oil growth and translating macroeconomic stability into broader prosperity through food security, job creation, human development and support for small businesses.

The Ministry of Finance said Fitch’s guidance indicated that further positive rating action could follow sustained disinflation, continued implementation of reforms, stronger external reserves and increased mobilisation of non-oil revenue.

Oyedele said the government remained committed to implementing the reforms to strengthen Nigeria’s economic resilience and improve living standards.