TCN Rebuts ‘Stranded Power’ Claims, Says Generation Nigeria’s Biggest Power Bottleneck

TCN Rebuts ‘Stranded Power’ Claims, Says Generation Nigeria’s Biggest Power Bottleneck

The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has strongly rejected claims by the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC) that Nigeria’s electricity crisis is primarily caused by transmission constraints, insisting that the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission’s (NERC) First Quarter 2026 report shows the country’s biggest challenge lies with power generation rather than the national grid.

By Raphael Ekpang

Abuja (Core Reporters) The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has rejected claims that the national grid is responsible for Nigeria’s so-called “stranded power” crisis, arguing that official data from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) points instead to poor generation plant availability as the major bottleneck in the electricity value chain.

In a detailed statement issued on Thursday, the company was responding to a THISDAY newspaper report in which the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC) alleged that more than 2,500MW of electricity is wasted daily because the transmission grid can wheel only about 4,500MW despite an installed generation capacity of over 15,500MW.

TCN described the claims as inconsistent with NERC’s audited First Quarter 2026 report, saying generation companies themselves declared an average available generation capacity of only 4,457.96MW during the period.

According to the company, the report also puts the installed capacity of the 28 grid-connected power plants at 13,625MW—far below the over 15,500MW cited by APGC.

The transmission company maintained that its verified wheeling capacity currently stands at 8,700MW, significantly higher than the amount of electricity generated in the country.

It added that the grid had already demonstrated this capability by successfully transmitting a record peak generation of 5,801.84MW on March 4, 2025, alongside record daily energy delivery of 128,370.75MWh, with other peaks above 5,500MW also recorded without incident.

TCN further argued that NERC’s own Plant Availability Factor showed that only 32.72 per cent of installed generation capacity was available for dispatch during the first quarter of 2026, leaving more than two-thirds of installed capacity unavailable because of gas shortages, maintenance outages and mechanical failures at power plants.

It cited several generating stations—including Alaoji, Rivers, Ibom Power, Sapele Steam and Omotosho—which recorded extremely low availability during the quarter.

The company also noted that NERC attributed declining hydropower output to seasonal low water levels and maintenance activities at major hydro stations, including Kainji, Jebba and Shiroro.

According to TCN, the report’s load factor of 92.26 per cent demonstrates that almost all electricity declared available by generation companies was successfully evacuated by the grid, leaving only about 345MW undispatched on average rather than the 2,500MW to 4,000MW claimed by APGC.

It added that five generating plants recorded a 100 per cent load factor, indicating that every megawatt they made available was fully dispatched.

Responding to claims of excessive transmission losses, TCN said NERC recorded a Transmission Loss Factor of 7.96 per cent during the quarter, equivalent to about 327MW of average hourly losses—not the 1,200MW to 1,300MW daily losses cited in the media report.

The company also clarified that most of the ₦2.61 billion cost associated with transmission loss factor underperformance reflected a generation capacity penalty rather than physical losses on transmission lines.

On the January 27, 2026 partial grid collapse referenced in the report, TCN noted that NERC’s preliminary findings attributed the incident to inadequate reactive power support needed to maintain voltage stability rather than a failure of transmission infrastructure.

While acknowledging that the January 23 total grid collapse resulted from a busbar separation at the Sapele Transmission Station, TCN said investigations traced the incident to the operation of a protective device linked to a generation facility connected to the transmission busbar.

The company also pointed to major investments undertaken to strengthen the grid, including the installation of 82 new power transformers between January 2024 and November 2025, adding about 8,500MVA of transformation capacity, extensive reconductoring of key transmission lines, and the commissioning of the Ihovbor-Benin and Ihovbor-Ajaokuta 330kV transmission lines, which added more than 600MW of wheeling capacity.

TCN maintained that while the Nigerian electricity industry continues to face significant challenges, the evidence contained in NERC’s quarterly report does not support the claim that transmission is the principal cause of Nigeria’s power supply shortfall.

The company urged stakeholders to rely on verified regulatory data when discussing challenges facing the power sector, stressing that sustainable solutions must be directed at the segment of the electricity value chain where the evidence shows the greatest constraints.