KANO AT CROSSROADS: WHY THE STATE MUST CHOOSE PEACE OVER POLITICAL WAR*

*KANO AT CROSSROADS: WHY THE STATE MUST CHOOSE PEACE OVER POLITICAL WAR*

By Alh. Abdulbaki Ibrahim, a Public Affairs Analyst._The ancient city of Kano, the commercial and political heartbeat of Northern Nigeria, is once again at a delicate crossroads.
Less than four years after a historic governorship contest that united and divided families, the political map of the state has changed beyond recognition.

In 2023, Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf won the governorship on the platform of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) with the full weight of the Kwankwasiyya movement led by Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.

Today, in 2026, the Governor sits as a member of the All Progressives Congress (APC), holding card number 001 of the party in Kano, while his former political
Godfather, Senator Kwankwaso, has emerged as the Vice-Presidential candidate of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), sponsoring Comrade Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo as the NDC governorship candidate in Kano.

For a few days now, the name of Comrade Gwarzo has been missing from the final list of governorship candidates published by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

INEC, relying on the Supreme Court judgment of September 24, 2026 in INEC vs Zenith Labour Party (SC/CV/495/2026), which restored Sections 77(5)-(7) and 84(2) of the Electoral Act 2026, has omitted candidates whose parties allegedly failed to submit a compliant membership register before conducting primaries.

This has affected not only Kano NDC, but also PDP candidates in Gombe and Ogun, and several others in Bauchi.

The question many are asking is: who has the upper hand?

*The Present Balance of Power*

Truth must be told. As of today, two forms of power exist in Kano.
The first is structural power. It is held by Governor Yusuf and the new APC coalition.
He controls the machinery of government, enjoys the support of 22 members of the State Assembly, nine members of the House of Representatives from Kano, and 44 local government chairmen who defected with him in January. The reconciliation of January 26, sealed finally on October 8 between former National Chairman Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and Deputy Senate President Senator Barau Jibrin under President Bola Tinubu’s guidance, has given him federal cover and an automatic ticket.
In conventional politics, this is the upper hand.

The second is emotional and movement power.
It is held by Senator Kwankwaso.
The red cap, the Kwankwasiyya ideology, the language of the talakawa, remains deeply embedded in the streets of Kano. Even after losing government house, the loyalty remains.
However, loyalty without a legally valid candidate on the ballot, as the INEC omission has shown, cannot win an election.

Thus, APC has the upper hand in structure, NDC/Kwankwasiyya retains influence in sentiment.

If the legal hurdle facing Gwarzo is not resolved before the October 24 window provided by INEC under Section 32(2) of the Electoral Act, structure will defeat sentiment.

But the bigger question for Kano is not who has the upper hand. The bigger question is: how do we prevent this contest from burning Kano?

*How to Contain It: My Three-Pillar Proposal…*

Having served this country for many years in various capacities, I have seen governments come and go, but Kano remains.
I am partisan to none but peace.
I therefore propose three pillars.

*First, De-escalate Personalities.*

The fight is no longer about ideology, it is about personalities.
The Governor himself warned against attacks on Kwankwaso, Ganduje and Barau, and Kwankwaso has told BBC Hausa that he is open to reconciliation, saying “I still like him.”
We should hold him to that word.

The social media armies of both sides must be called to order.
I propose a private *Majalisar Dattawa* – a council of 5-7 neutral elders and respected traditional title holders – to meet separately with both leaders and agree on rules of engagement: no incitement, no destruction of legacies, no importation of thugs.

*Second, Return to Legality, Not Emotion.*

The Supreme Court has spoken. Section 77 of the Electoral Act must be obeyed by all parties, not selectively.

NDC must do the needful before October 24 – file its complaint with affidavit and proof that Gwarzo and his deputy were in the register.

APC must also audit its own register.

We must support INEC to apply the law equally. When law takes centre stage, rumour dies.

*Third, Refocus Competition to Governance.*

The people of Kano do not want insults, they want water, jobs, security, and respect for their traditional institutions.

Let government show its scorecard.

Let opposition show its alternative blueprint.

Let the debate be about the economy of Dawanau and Kwari markets, the education of our youth, and security along our borders, not about who abused who on Facebook.

*Conclusion*
Kano has survived worse political storms. The Kwankwaso-Ganduje rivalry, the Abacha era, the Emirship tussles – we survived them because elders spoke up at the right time.

Whoever wins on February 6, 2027, will still need a united Kano to govern. If we burn the house today because two brothers are quarrelling, we will have nowhere to sleep tomorrow.
Kano First, Politics Second.

Alh. Abdulbaki Ibrahim, a Public Affairs Analyst, with years of institutional experience, writes from Kano, Nigeria.